Mon, Dec 5, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 3, Boston Bruins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 111 | 211 | 00 | 330 |
| BOS | 115 | 111 | 18 | 12 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:32BOSTim SchallerAssists: David Krejci · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 9:44FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Mark Pysyk · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 16:37BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.42 xG1–2
- P3 7:54FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 13:08BOSDavid BackesAssists: Ryan Spooner · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 18:31FLAJason DemersAssists: Mike Matheson, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 1:23BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: David Krejci, Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:24FLAJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:55BOSJimmy Hayes: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:51FLAMike Matheson: Holding2 min
- P2 13:40BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:15FLAJason Demers: Interference2 min
- P3 9:49BOSTim Schaller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestThornton – MacKenzie – Thompson4:23
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Jagr – Barkov – Malgin5:53
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Thompson – Malgin2:44
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Bjugstad – Rau4:33
xG 0.17–0.37 (31%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ekblad2:43
xG 0.19–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kindl – Matheson2:16
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Ekblad5:03
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:07
xG 1.17–0.36 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Nash – Spooner – Czarnik6:02
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Backes – Krejci – Schaller10:59
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Moore – Hayes – Blidh4:12
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug2:02
xG 0.58–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 2–0
- Chara – Carlo16:51
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- McQuaid – Krug14:24
xG 0.67–0.55 (55%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).