Tue, Dec 6, 2016·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Edmonton Oilers 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 05 | 214 | 118 | 00 | 337 |
| BUF | 210 | 05 | 19 | 12 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:38BUFEvander KanePPAssists: Jake McCabe, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 13:46BUFBrian GiontaAssists: Marcus Foligno, Rasmus Ristolainen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 10:31EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Drake Caggiula, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 12:16EDMMilan LucicAssists: Connor McDavid, Drake Caggiula · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 9:59EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Andrej Sekera · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 19:31BUFEvander KaneAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 0:57BUFRasmus RistolainenPPGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:03EDMZack Kassian: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:45EDMConnor McDavid: Interference2 min
- P2 8:34BUFJake McCabe: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:57BUFCody Franson: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:54BUFKyle Okposo: Interference2 min
- P3 3:43EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Interference2 min
- P3 8:26BUFEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:42EDMAdam Larsson: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – McDavid – Caggiula6:31
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Lucic – Draisaitl – McDavid5:29
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Maroon – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:28
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Kassian – Puljujarvi – Caggiula3:53
xG 0.01–0.04 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Benning13:54
xG 0.81–0.40 (67%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Klefbom – Benning6:52
xG 0.36–0.10 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Sekera – Russell2:08
xG 0.08–0.02 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKane – Reinhart – Eichel8:37
xG 0.67–0.25 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson9:26
xG 0.20–0.08 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Moulson – Grant – Girgensons3:02
xG 0.04–0.05 (41%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Carrier9:25
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Burgdoerfer11:08
xG 0.58–0.10 (86%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen15:11
xG 0.40–0.61 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Franson – Guhle13:14
xG 0.10–0.32 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).