Tue, Dec 6, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
New York Rangers 2, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 016 | 211 | 011 | 238 |
| NYI | 29 | 113 | 110 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:03NYIScott MayfieldAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Anders Lee · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 17:24NYIJason ChimeraAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–2
- P2 0:56NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–2
- P2 2:18NYIAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Shane Prince · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 8:54NYRMarc StaalAssists: J.T. Miller, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 11:13NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:45NYIAlan Quine: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:17NYIBrock Nelson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 13:42NYIAnders Lee: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:25NYRJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:20NYRBrandon Pirri: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:34NYIThomas Hickey: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:28NYITravis Hamonic: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Quine won the faceoff against Lindberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestLindberg – Fast – Hrivik3:03
xG 0.29–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Hayes – Vesey3:18
xG 0.56–0.45 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 1–2
- Hayes – Miller – Vesey5:08
xG 0.13–0.25 (35%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pirri – Lindberg – Fast2:11
xG 0.01–0.29 (2%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Holden14:37
xG 0.94–0.40 (70%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Klein – Skjei9:59
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
- Girardi – McDonagh14:52
xG 0.40–1.04 (28%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Cizikas – Lee7:07
xG 0.63–0.07 (90%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Chimera – Kulemin – Quine5:55
xG 0.37–0.01 (99%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Ladd – Prince – Strome9:09
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Bailey – Tavares – Nelson11:51
xG 0.52–1.18 (30%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Mayfield12:38
xG 0.75–0.43 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Seidenberg – de Haan14:46
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Leddy16:00
xG 0.93–1.02 (48%)attempts 14–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).