Tue, Dec 6, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 115 | 010 | 117 | 02 | 244 |
| PHI | 16 | 113 | 04 | 12 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:40FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Mark Pysyk, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 17:07PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 10:08PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 15:14FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Mike Matheson, Colton Sceviour · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 4:51PHIJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:30PHIBrandon Manning: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:40FLAMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:46FLAColton Sceviour: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:46PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:40FLAJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:51PHINick Cousins: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:29FLAJussi Jokinen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:36FLAJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Sceviour – Trocheck10:46
xG 0.70–0.18 (79%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Thompson – Malgin5:51
xG 0.29–0.01 (96%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Jagr – Smith – Barkov14:09
xG 0.60–0.56 (51%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Rau3:46
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Ekblad12:49
xG 0.93–0.29 (76%)attempts 24–11goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson12:53
xG 0.62–0.09 (87%)attempts 25–7goals 1–0
- Yandle – Demers15:52
xG 0.40–0.70 (36%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Weise – Cousins – Leier2:20
xG 0.03–0.08 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Weise – Schenn2:32
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl12:00
xG 0.40–0.66 (38%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Konecny6:59
xG 0.04–0.41 (8%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Streit – Del Zotto13:58
xG 0.63–0.87 (42%)attempts 9–28goals 0–1
- Manning – Gostisbehere12:01
xG 0.07–0.42 (15%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Provorov14:26
xG 0.12–0.63 (16%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).