Tue, Dec 6, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Montréal Canadiens 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 112 | 17 | 08 | 03 | 230 |
| STL | 013 | 06 | 29 | 13 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:06MTLPaul ByronAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Mark Barberio · Deflected, 0.28 xG1–0
- P2 17:42MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Paul Byron · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 7:40STLPaul StastnyAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 10:31STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Paul Stastny, Jay Bouwmeester · Tip-in, 0.27 xG2–2
- OT 3:38STLJaden SchwartzGWGAssists: Alexander Steen · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:37MTLGreg Pateryn: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:15STLPaul Stastny: Interference2 min
- P1 13:15MTLAlexander Radulov: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:58MTLDavid Desharnais: Interference2 min
- P1 19:26STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:53MTLTorrey Mitchell: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:19STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:43STLRobby Fabbri: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:12STLKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Lehtera
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Desharnais – Pacioretty7:39
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Lehkonen8:12
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Byron – Lehkonen2:28
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Danault – Flynn – Carr6:15
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Barberio9:36
xG 0.66–0.04 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Markov – Petry13:14
xG 0.43–0.28 (60%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Weber – Emelin15:06
xG 0.69–0.92 (43%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Schwartz6:17
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves3:31
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz2:54
xG 0.17–0.15 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Berglund – Perron – Jaskin6:16
xG 0.04–0.05 (43%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko13:22
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson8:50
xG 0.24–0.53 (31%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo13:28
xG 0.60–1.15 (34%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).