Tue, Dec 6, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 2, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 18 | 15 | 220 |
| DAL | 19 | 010 | 011 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:15DALCurtis McKenzieUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 12:19CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Alex Chiasson, Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 9:49CGYSean MonahanPPGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:57DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:51CGYTroy Brouwer: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:59CGYDeryk Engelland: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:16DALBrett Ritchie: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Gaudreau – Bennett11:13
xG 0.54–0.27 (67%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk12:59
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
- Stajan – Ferland – Hathaway9:03
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Monahan11:44
xG 0.04–0.32 (10%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton17:26
xG 0.50–0.25 (66%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie14:29
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Engelland – Jokipakka15:11
xG 0.49–0.73 (40%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Korpikoski – Eakin10:52
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Roussel – Ritchie – Faksa10:04
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin11:38
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Cracknell – McKenzie – Shore9:25
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Klingberg2:52
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Johns3:25
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Johns11:39
xG 0.27–0.28 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).