Wed, Dec 7, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Anaheim Ducks 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 113 | 27 | 212 | 02 | 1 | 534 |
| ANA | 113 | 17 | 314 | 04 | 2 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:57ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Ryan Kesler · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 19:22CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:45CARJay McClementAssists: Jeff Skinner, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 10:10CARSebastian AhoAssists: Lee Stempniak, Cam Ward · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P2 13:52ANAStefan NoesenAssists: Ondrej Kase, Joseph Cramarossa · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 4:46CARBrett PesceAssists: Andrej Nestrasil · Slap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 8:21ANARyan KeslerAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Jakob Silfverberg · Tip-in, 0.26 xG4–3
- P3 9:21CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Sebastian Aho, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–3
- P3 16:01ANANick RitchieAssists: Cam Fowler, Corey Perry · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–4
- P3 17:32ANACorey PerryUnassisted · Slap, 0.18 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. ANA Jakob Silfverberg stopped
- 2. CAR Sebastian Aho scored
- 3. ANA Ryan Getzlaf scored
- 4. CAR Teuvo Teravainen stopped
- 5. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 6. CAR Jaccob Slavin stopped
- 7. ANA Ondrej Kase scored
- 8. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:29ANANick Ritchie: Holding2 min
- P1 5:57CARJoakim Nordstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:57ANASami Vatanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:25ANARyan Garbutt: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:09ANAShea Theodore: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:27CARJeff Skinner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:47CARVictor Rask: High sticking2 min
- OT 4:49ANAShea Theodore: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Teravainen won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Teravainen – Aho12:50
xG 0.71–0.09 (88%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Nestrasil – McGinn – Ryan7:46
xG 0.32–0.37 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom10:58
xG 0.26–0.84 (24%)attempts 8–16goals 0–2
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe10:53
xG 0.28–1.05 (21%)attempts 8–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce16:11
xG 0.96–0.51 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 3–1
- Tennyson – Hanifin11:07
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk14:22
xG 0.29–1.33 (18%)attempts 10–22goals 0–3
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg13:52
xG 1.20–0.25 (83%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ritchie9:20
xG 0.65–0.17 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- Garbutt – Shaw – Noesen5:32
xG 0.12–0.06 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Vermette – Cramarossa – Kase11:40
xG 0.31–0.69 (31%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Fowler15:44
xG 1.37–0.48 (74%)attempts 22–9goals 4–1
- Manson – Lindholm12:13
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Lindholm2:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).