Thu, Dec 8, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Colorado Avalanche 4, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 29 | 26 | 07 | 422 |
| BOS | 010 | 213 | 08 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:30COLMatt DucheneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 12:57COLNathan MacKinnonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 4:09COLJohn MitchellGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 12:03BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Tim Schaller · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 13:23BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 17:05COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Francois Beauchemin · Snap, 0.11 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:40BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:40COLNikita Zadorov: Embellishment2 min
- P1 8:32COLPatrick Wiercioch: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 11:43COLFedor Tyutin: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:52BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:03BOSKevan Miller: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Duchene – Rantanen12:52
xG 0.95–0.76 (56%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
- Comeau – Bourque – MacKinnon9:58
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- McLeod – Colborne – Martinsen3:18
xG 0.06–0.06 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Soderberg – Grigorenko9:34
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Goloubef13:46
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Zadorov2:04
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Wiercioch10:57
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:25
xG 0.68–0.11 (86%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Backes – Krejci – Schaller10:00
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Moore – Hayes – Blidh8:31
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Nash – Spooner – Czarnik7:35
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo18:52
xG 0.98–0.49 (67%)attempts 21–14goals 1–1
- Miller – Krug5:03
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Miller8:59
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).