Thu, Dec 8, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Edmonton Oilers 5, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 15 | 213 | 215 | 533 |
| PHI | 09 | 39 | 313 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:39EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Kris Russell · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 4:35EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 12:31PHIMark StreitAssists: Travis Konecny, Ivan Provorov · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 13:24PHIPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Chris VandeVelde · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 13:43PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 16:15EDMAndrej SekeraSHAssists: Mark Letestu, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 3:07EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 5:12EDMOscar KlefbomPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.03 xG5–3
- P3 6:31PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.04 xG5–4
- P3 12:11PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Radko Gudas, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.28 xG5–5
- P3 18:31PHIMichael RafflGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Mark Streit · Snap, 0.11 xG5–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:23EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:45EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Holding2 min
- P2 3:48PHIAndrew MacDonald: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:23EDMMatt Hendricks: Holding2 min
- P2 14:10PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:30EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:19PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:30PHITaylor Leier: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:42EDMKris Russell: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins10:54
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Lucic – McDavid – Caggiula12:44
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian6:19
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi5:52
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Russell16:03
xG 0.79–0.45 (64%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Simpson – Benning7:44
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Larsson – Klefbom14:04
xG 0.23–0.85 (21%)attempts 13–19goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl12:09
xG 0.87–0.45 (66%)attempts 17–9goals 3–0
- Weise – Cousins – Leier5:15
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov10:38
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Konecny10:59
xG 0.39–0.66 (37%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Gudas13:35
xG 0.94–0.35 (73%)attempts 19–12goals 3–1
- MacDonald – Provorov13:30
xG 0.36–0.47 (43%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Manning – Gostisbehere12:46
xG 0.26–0.64 (29%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).