Thu, Dec 8, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
New Jersey Devils 2, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 06 | 17 | 221 |
| MTL | 211 | 114 | 224 | 549 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:49MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Andrew Shaw · Deflected, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 16:19NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: PA Parenteau, Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.29 xG1–1
- P1 17:15MTLTorrey MitchellAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Zach Redmond · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 9:59MTLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Andrew Shaw, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–3
- P3 0:45MTLMax PaciorettyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 3:07NJDTaylor HallPPAssists: Adam Henrique, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–4
- P3 15:49MTLTorrey MitchellAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Paul Byron · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:42NJDKyle Palmieri: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 19:42MTLCarey Price: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:42MTLCarey Price: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:17MTLZach Redmond: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:59NJDBeau Bennett: Interference2 min
- P2 15:19NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:46MTLTorrey Mitchell: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Cammalleri – Zajac – Smith-Pelly2:34
xG 0.03–0.05 (37%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Wood – Lappin9:25
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
- Smith-Pelly – Bennett – Kalinin6:44
xG 0.00–0.56 (0%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Henrique – Hall9:04
xG 0.38–1.05 (26%)attempts 8–18goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Lovejoy – Auvitu13:34
xG 0.21–0.74 (23%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
- Greene – Severson13:59
xG 0.41–1.15 (26%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Quincey – Moore15:00
xG 0.03–1.44 (2%)attempts 6–30goals 0–3
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Danault – Lehkonen12:50
xG 2.15–0.56 (79%)attempts 27–13goals 2–1
- Mitchell – Byron – Gallagher9:52
xG 0.78–0.04 (95%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Plekanec – Radulov – Pacioretty15:51
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Flynn – Andrighetto – Carr6:52
xG 0.05–0.17 (22%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Petry17:21
xG 1.63–0.70 (70%)attempts 27–17goals 2–1
- Weber – Emelin17:05
xG 0.95–0.08 (92%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Redmond – Beaulieu15:25
xG 1.01–0.37 (73%)attempts 19–13goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).