Thu, Dec 8, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 16 | 17 | 15 | 318 |
| LAK | 05 | 012 | 15 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:51CARDerek RyanAssists: Andrej Nestrasil, Justin Faulk · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 13:13CARDerek RyanSHGWGAssists: Brock McGinn, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 4:20CARBrock McGinnAssists: Victor Rask, Phillip Di Giuseppe · Snap, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 12:50LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Marian Gaborik, Tyler Toffoli · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
Penalties (3)
- P2 3:48CARNoah Hanifin: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:15CARTeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:18CARBrock McGinn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Teravainen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRask – Di Giuseppe – McGinn10:52
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Nestrasil – Skinner – Ryan10:41
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom10:23
xG 0.06–0.32 (15%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Teravainen – Aho13:48
xG 0.15–0.52 (22%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tennyson – Hanifin11:39
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Faulk17:39
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
- Slavin – Pesce16:58
xG 0.39–0.73 (35%)attempts 8–22goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Kopitar – Toffoli3:29
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Carter – Nolan – Pearson3:56
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson4:20
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Nolan3:11
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Gravel7:16
xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty10:31
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Doughty – Forbort8:46
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).