Fri, Dec 9, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 111 | 09 | 14 | 03 | 2 | 227 |
| MIN | 06 | 110 | 111 | 09 | 3 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:04EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Tyler Pitlick · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 4:26MINMathew DumbaAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 1:19MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 15:21EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Jason Pominville scored
- 2. EDM Mark Letestu stopped
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 4. EDM Matt Hendricks stopped
- 5. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 6. EDM Leon Draisaitl scored
- 7. MIN Charlie Coyle stopped
- 8. EDM Connor McDavid stopped
- 9. MIN Chris Stewart scored
- 10. EDM Jordan Eberle scored
- 11. MIN Eric Staal scored
- 12. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:32EDMZack Kassian: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:23MINMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:01EDMAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P3 2:00EDMKris Russell: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:49MINKurtis Gabriel: Interference2 min
- P3 15:11MINMathew Dumba: Holding2 min · PPG
- OT 1:09EDMConnor McDavid: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Pitlick – Draisaitl10:32
xG 0.87–0.12 (88%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Lucic – McDavid – Caggiula12:43
xG 0.41–0.19 (69%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian6:34
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Maroon – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins10:26
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSimpson – Benning6:50
xG 0.46–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – Russell15:45
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Sekera – Benning3:31
xG 0.21–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Graovac – Gabriel7:16
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Coyle14:16
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund12:50
xG 0.22–0.50 (31%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter8:46
xG 0.18–0.83 (18%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba13:58
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Scandella – Prosser14:35
xG 0.52–0.48 (52%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon16:04
xG 0.11–1.19 (8%)attempts 8–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).