Fri, Dec 9, 2016·United Center, Chicago
New York Rangers 1, Chicago Blackhawks 0 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 012 | 011 | 013 | 11 | 137 |
| CHI | 09 | 010 | 07 | 00 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 0:55NYRNick HoldenGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
Penalties (3)
- P1 1:26CHIMichal Rozsival: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:07CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:28NYRJimmy Vesey: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Kruger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestLindberg – Fast – Hrivik11:43
xG 1.37–0.25 (85%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Pirri – Jensen – Vesey7:47
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello11:31
xG 0.39–0.52 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller14:24
xG 0.39–0.72 (35%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Skjei11:15
xG 0.90–0.12 (89%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh19:11
xG 0.76–0.67 (53%)attempts 21–24goals 0–0
- Staal – Holden16:30
xG 0.45–0.75 (38%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Kruger – Hartman13:47
xG 0.65–0.18 (79%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin16:24
xG 0.77–0.75 (51%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Desjardins – Hinostroza3:21
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Panik – Rasmussen2:09
xG 0.01–0.08 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Campbell – van Riemsdyk15:14
xG 0.64–0.62 (51%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Keith4:01
xG 0.04–0.14 (21%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson15:36
xG 0.32–0.68 (32%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).