Sat, Dec 10, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Dallas Stars 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 07 | 16 | 223 |
| PHI | 17 | 05 | 310 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:30DALDevin ShoreAssists: Curtis McKenzie, Adam Cracknell · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 17:18PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 10:32DALDevin ShoreAssists: Antoine Roussel, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P3 16:12PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Mark Streit · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 17:45PHIBrayden SchennPPGWGAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 18:51PHIJakub VoracekENAssists: Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.63 xG2–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 12:32PHIRadko Gudas: Clipping2 min
- P1 14:46DALEsa Lindell: Interference2 min
- P1 16:39DALCurtis McKenzie: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:37PHIIvan Provorov: Interference2 min
- P2 7:47DALStephen Johns: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:47PHIBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:59DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:55DALLauri Korpikoski: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:23PHIRadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P3 12:19PHIBrayden Schenn: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:06DALJamie Oleksiak: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:03DALTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:49DALAntoine Roussel: Slashing5 min
- P3 19:49DALAntoine Roussel: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 19:49PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing5 min
- P3 19:49PHIWayne Simmonds: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCracknell – McKenzie – Shore7:11
xG 0.54–0.08 (87%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Roussel – Ritchie – Faksa8:32
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin11:30
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Eaves – Korpikoski – Eakin8:02
xG 0.04–0.49 (8%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Johns8:49
xG 0.58–0.23 (71%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell14:10
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Benn – Oleksiak13:09
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Konecny8:11
xG 0.36–0.06 (87%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov9:49
xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl12:37
xG 0.09–0.22 (29%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Gordon – Weise – Cousins2:58
xG 0.02–0.54 (3%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gostisbehere10:34
xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Provorov12:47
xG 0.08–0.41 (16%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
- Streit – Gudas14:22
xG 0.29–0.78 (27%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).