Sat, Dec 10, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Ottawa Senators 1, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 19 | 03 | 120 |
| LAK | 28 | 15 | 16 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:10LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Peter Budaj · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 7:22LAKAlec MartinezPPGWGAssists: Tanner Pearson, Kevin Gravel · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 2:00OTTZack SmithAssists: Tom Pyatt, Kyle Turris · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 19:58LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Derek Forbort, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 12:39LAKMarian GaborikPPAssists: Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:38OTTMark Borowiecki: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P1 8:14OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:14LAKMatt Greene: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:23LAKAndy Andreoff: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:53OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:53LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:31LAKTyler Toffoli: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:20LAKMatt Greene: Interference2 min
- P3 6:38LAKJeff Carter: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:46OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Shore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Smith – Pageau7:29
xG 0.23–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Neil – Kelly – Robinson4:38
xG 0.21–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Brassard – Hoffman – Stone10:01
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel9:38
xG 0.17–0.17 (49%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Karlsson4:35
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Methot – Ceci4:46
xG 0.14–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci7:19
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Lewis5:26
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Lewis5:52
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Setoguchi – Andreoff3:20
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brown – Setoguchi – Andreoff3:55
xG 0.06–0.01 (83%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort15:50
xG 0.42–0.06 (88%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Gravel8:32
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez5:06
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).