Sat, Dec 10, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Colorado Avalanche 1, Montréal Canadiens 10
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 17 | 05 | 04 | 116 |
| MTL | 616 | 310 | 110 | 1036 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56MTLBrian FlynnAssists: Daniel Carr, Sven Andrighetto · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 5:13MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 7:12MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Phillip Danault, Andrew Shaw · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–3
- P1 8:13MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Andrei Markov, Tomas Plekanec · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–4
- P1 8:41MTLPaul ByronAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–5
- P1 13:47MTLBrian FlynnAssists: Sven Andrighetto, Zach Redmond · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–6
- P1 19:47COLBlake ComeauAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–6
- P2 11:35MTLAlexander RadulovAssists: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–7
- P2 18:33MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Alexander Radulov, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–8
- P2 19:59MTLJeff PetryPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Andrew Shaw · Slap, 0.05 xG1–9
- P3 7:28MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Zach Redmond · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–10
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:11MTLAndrei Markov: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:36COLJoe Colborne: Elbowing2 min
- P2 19:56COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:56MTLMax Pacioretty: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:32MTLAlexei Emelin: Clipping2 min
- P3 16:32MTLAlexei Emelin: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:32MTLAlexei Emelin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:32COLJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:32COLJarome Iginla: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Soderberg – Landeskog – Grigorenko12:42
xG 0.13–0.14 (47%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Comeau – Bourque – MacKinnon9:19
xG 0.14–0.60 (19%)attempts 4–11goals 1–4
- Iginla – Colborne – Martinsen6:55
xG 0.00–0.67 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Duchene – Rantanen12:31
xG 0.41–1.66 (20%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Tyutin – Goloubef2:14
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Wiercioch13:52
xG 0.18–0.66 (22%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Goloubef13:49
xG 0.04–1.06 (4%)attempts 4–18goals 0–4
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestFlynn – Andrighetto – Carr10:00
xG 0.78–0.09 (89%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Plekanec – Radulov – Pacioretty12:22
xG 1.03–0.38 (73%)attempts 18–8goals 4–1
- Shaw – Danault – Lehkonen9:37
xG 0.51–0.03 (94%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Byron – Gallagher11:45
xG 0.16–0.22 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRedmond – Beaulieu18:42
xG 2.20–0.29 (88%)attempts 23–11goals 4–0
- Markov – Petry13:19
xG 1.05–0.20 (84%)attempts 20–5goals 3–1
- Weber – Emelin16:03
xG 0.65–0.15 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).