Sat, Dec 10, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Islanders 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 110 | 111 | 09 | 230 |
| CBJ | 17 | 119 | 413 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:59NYIJosh BaileyUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 13:59CBJJack JohnsonPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Brandon Dubinsky · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 10:16CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Jack Johnson, David Savard · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 12:32NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Anders Lee, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 2:19CBJJosh AndersonGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 9:23CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Markus Nutivaara · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 12:39CBJLukas SedlakAssists: Seth Jones, Matt Calvert · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 14:23CBJSeth JonesAssists: William Karlsson, Scott Hartnell · Slap, 0.03 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:53CBJDavid Savard: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:25NYIAndrew Ladd: Interference2 min
- P1 11:09CBJScott Hartnell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 12:04NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:23CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:23NYITravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:35NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:58NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:25CBJCam Atkinson: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Kulemin – Quine9:44
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Ladd – Prince – Strome11:22
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Lee8:33
xG 0.23–0.54 (30%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Nelson11:44
xG 0.18–0.63 (22%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Hamonic – Leddy13:02
xG 0.14–0.33 (29%)attempts 7–13goals 0–2
- Boychuk – Hickey11:05
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – de Haan13:46
xG 0.54–0.81 (40%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Calvert – Karlsson2:00
xG 0.19–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Saad – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg9:27
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Gagner – Calvert – Sedlak5:57
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner10:12
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard15:42
xG 1.01–0.39 (72%)attempts 17–14goals 2–1
- Jones – Werenski13:41
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Murray – Nutivaara14:04
xG 0.57–0.83 (41%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).