Sun, Dec 11, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Ottawa Senators 1, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 17 | 07 | 08 | 122 |
| ANA | 313 | 112 | 17 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:58ANAJoseph CramarossaAssists: Josh Manson, Shea Theodore · Tip-in, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 7:53OTTRyan DzingelPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 12:05ANACorey PerryPPGWGAssists: Cam Fowler, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 19:13ANAAntoine VermettePPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 10:29ANANick RitchieAssists: Antoine Vermette, Ondrej Kase · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 7:59ANASami VatanenPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Corey Perry · Slap, 0.16 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:22ANAShea Theodore: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:43OTTRyan Dzingel: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:48OTTRyan Dzingel: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:50OTTDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:50ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:56ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:15ANAOndrej Kase: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 3:11OTTDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:26ANARickard Rakell: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:36OTTChris Kelly: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Ryan – Brassard – Stone2:12
xG 0.09–0.08 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel5:50
xG 0.02–0.19 (11%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Pageau3:09
xG 0.02–0.19 (8%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Brassard – Hoffman – Stone6:41
xG 0.11–0.55 (17%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Methot – Ceci3:43
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Wideman2:07
xG 0.02–0.14 (10%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson3:33
xG 0.09–0.38 (19%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell10:24
xG 0.73–0.08 (90%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Vermette – Ritchie – Kase8:50
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:02
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Cramarossa – Shaw – Noesen3:57
xG 0.35–0.06 (85%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Theodore8:26
xG 0.56–0.12 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Fowler12:35
xG 0.50–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm9:17
xG 0.52–0.14 (79%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).