Sun, Dec 11, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Detroit Red Wings 0 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 012 | 08 | 16 | 136 |
| DET | 05 | 011 | 011 | 01 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 2:44PHIBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Ivan Provorov, Wayne Simmonds · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:11DETHenrik Zetterberg: Interference2 min
- P1 15:09PHIMichael Raffl: Holding2 min
- P1 17:20DETLuke Glendening: Interference2 min
- P2 8:54PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:24PHIRoman Lyubimov: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 17:32DETMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:41PHIRadko Gudas: Delaying game2 min
- P3 5:30PHIWayne Simmonds: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:03DETXavier Ouellet: Instigator2 min
- P3 8:03DETXavier Ouellet: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:03DETXavier Ouellet: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:03PHIMichael Raffl: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Cousins – Leier6:17
xG 0.39–0.09 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl12:27
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov5:30
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Konecny9:38
xG 0.28–0.46 (37%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Provorov15:29
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Manning11:43
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Streit – Gudas12:00
xG 0.46–0.51 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Tatar – Mantha7:14
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Ott – Jurco – Athanasiou4:29
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Glendening – Larkin10:34
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Vanek – Nyquist – Sheahan7:28
xG 0.22–0.49 (31%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLashoff – Marchenko5:04
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Green – Lashoff2:49
xG 0.14–0.12 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Marchenko2:27
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).