Sun, Dec 11, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 1, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 011 | 16 | 06 | 123 |
| MIN | 06 | 29 | 110 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:45MINMathew DumbaAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 7:49MINNino NiederreiterGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Erik Haula · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 15:48STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Robby Fabbri, Brad Hunt · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 19:01MINMikael GranlundENAssists: Nate Prosser, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.59 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:23MINMarco Scandella: Delaying game2 min
- P1 7:32STLKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:16MINKurtis Gabriel: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:16STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:41MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:34STLRobby Fabbri: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:22MINEric Staal: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:10STLDavid Perron: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Fabbri2:25
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Upshall – Berglund – Perron2:26
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Schwartz9:32
xG 0.12–0.33 (27%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Berglund – Perron – Jaskin6:43
xG 0.07–0.33 (18%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Hunt11:32
xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Edmundson2:26
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Parayko10:23
xG 0.10–0.30 (25%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Staal – Parise13:10
xG 0.94–0.29 (77%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund12:52
xG 0.51–0.09 (85%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Haula – Coyle – Niederreiter10:52
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Stewart – Graovac – Gabriel4:58
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba14:19
xG 0.45–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon16:22
xG 0.78–0.49 (61%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Scandella – Prosser13:14
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).