Sun, Dec 11, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 0, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 08 | 03 | 08 | 019 |
| NYR | 110 | 211 | 210 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:43NYRChris KreiderGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 16:07NYRJ.T. MillerSHAssists: Kevin Hayes · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 19:57NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Derek Stepan, Oscar Lindberg · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 6:04NYRBrandon PirriPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–4
- P3 18:42NYRJimmy VeseyPPAssists: Brandon Pirri, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:43NJDTaylor Hall: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:39NYRChris Kreider: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 1:21NJDBen Lovejoy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:19NYRJimmy Vesey: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:58NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:56NYRBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:49NYRMichael Grabner: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:09NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:09NJDVernon Fiddler: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:52NJDBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:33NJDNick Lappin: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 17:33NYRKevin Klein: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:33NJDNick Lappin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Henrique – Hall8:12
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Wood – Lappin6:53
xG 0.05–0.16 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Bennett – Kalinin4:52
xG 0.04–0.18 (17%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Zajac – Palmieri8:20
xG 0.10–0.28 (27%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Merrill9:52
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Moore – Severson2:19
xG 0.11–0.19 (38%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson9:57
xG 0.22–0.30 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPirri – Jensen – Vesey5:42
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Fast – Hrivik11:04
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello9:56
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller6:57
xG 0.04–0.17 (18%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Skjei12:15
xG 0.49–0.20 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Girardi – McDonagh11:12
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Holden10:07
xG 0.17–0.29 (36%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).