Sun, Dec 11, 2016·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Winnipeg Jets 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 110 | 110 | 011 | 231 |
| EDM | 010 | 18 | 213 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:50WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Bryan Little, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 1:53EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 12:00WPGChris ThorburnAssists: Marko Dano · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 2:28EDMMark LetestuPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 11:21EDMMark LetestuGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:20WPGPaul Postma: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:06WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:06EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:26EDMDillon Simpson: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:00WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:58WPGMarko Dano: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Perreault – Laine13:43
xG 0.89–0.61 (59%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
- Thorburn – Copp – Dano5:01
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Stafford – Scheifele – Ehlers2:27
xG 0.06–0.09 (42%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers12:46
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Morrissey18:40
xG 0.69–0.42 (62%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Trouba18:42
xG 0.87–0.67 (57%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
- Postma – Chiarot10:48
xG 0.23–0.38 (37%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:11
xG 0.37–0.19 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Lucic – Draisaitl – Caggiula2:13
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Pitlick – Draisaitl8:07
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Lucic – Letestu – McDavid4:29
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom15:19
xG 0.90–0.37 (71%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Sekera – Russell14:39
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Simpson – Benning9:17
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).