Mon, Dec 12, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Boston Bruins 2, Montréal Canadiens 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 07 | 113 | 07 | 12 | 229 |
| MTL | 08 | 012 | 110 | 01 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:55BOSAustin CzarnikAssists: Adam McQuaid, Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 16:48MTLPaul ByronAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Andrei Markov · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- OT 3:20BOSRyan SpoonerGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Austin Czarnik · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:56BOSAdam McQuaid: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:02BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:26MTLBrendan Gallagher: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:26BOSTorey Krug: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:23BOSKevan Miller: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:23MTLAlexander Radulov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:32BOSJoe Morrow: Holding2 min
- P2 5:20MTLAndrei Markov: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:00BOSTorey Krug: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:05BOSDavid Backes: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Backes – Marchand10:12
xG 0.74–0.33 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Hayes – Spooner – Czarnik6:01
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Krejci – Schaller – Pastrnak10:38
xG 0.41–0.51 (44%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- Moore – Nash – Acciari8:11
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug9:06
xG 0.91–0.29 (76%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Chara – Carlo15:51
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Miller – Morrow10:15
xG 0.12–0.54 (18%)attempts 2–16goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Danault – Lehkonen8:34
xG 0.59–0.13 (83%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Radulov – Pacioretty12:54
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Flynn – Andrighetto – Carr4:12
xG 0.05–0.01 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Byron – Gallagher7:08
xG 0.51–0.87 (37%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Beaulieu4:20
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Markov – Petry10:37
xG 0.55–0.29 (66%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Markov – Emelin2:10
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).