Tue, Dec 13, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Vancouver Canucks 6, Carolina Hurricanes 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 417 | 110 | 634 |
| CAR | 211 | 010 | 615 | 836 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:27CARSebastian AhoAssists: Brett Pesce, Lee Stempniak · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 7:35VANSven BaertschiAssists: Bo Horvat, Alexandre Burrows · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–1
- P1 9:25CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Derek Ryan · Snap, 0.58 xG1–2
- P2 4:11VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Sven Baertschi, Nikita Tryamkin · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 5:24VANMarkus GranlundAssists: Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–2
- P2 8:47VANBen HuttonAssists: Brandon Sutter · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P2 14:19VANSven BaertschiAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–2
- P3 1:16CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Derek Ryan, Victor Rask · Tip-in, 0.19 xG5–3
- P3 4:14CARRon HainseyAssists: Justin Faulk, Victor Rask · Snap, 0.03 xG5–4
- P3 4:38CARVictor RaskAssists: Derek Ryan, Jeff Skinner · Deflected, 0.11 xG5–5
- P3 5:56CARJustin FaulkAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–6
- P3 12:38CARJordan StaalGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Joakim Nordstrom · Snap, 0.39 xG5–7
- P3 14:10VANBrandon SutterAssists: Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.13 xG6–7
- P3 19:02CARLee StempniakENAssists: Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.60 xG6–8
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:06VANErik Gudbranson: Charging2 min · PPG
- P1 14:51CARRon Hainsey: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:51VANLuca Sbisa: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:11CARElias Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P2 16:25VANErik Gudbranson: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00VANAlexandre Burrows: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:37CARElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Sutter – Granlund10:44
xG 1.36–0.28 (83%)attempts 17–8goals 3–1
- Burrows – Baertschi – Horvat11:01
xG 0.76–0.72 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 2–1
- Skille – Chaput – Megna5:21
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen14:01
xG 0.41–1.11 (27%)attempts 12–25goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Hutton14:59
xG 1.12–0.60 (65%)attempts 16–18goals 2–2
- Biega – Tryamkin13:50
xG 1.41–1.27 (52%)attempts 22–15goals 3–3
- Gudbranson – Stecher3:11
xG 0.12–0.15 (44%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Nordstrom – Lindholm12:48
xG 1.01–0.75 (57%)attempts 20–11goals 2–1
- Stempniak – Teravainen – Aho11:42
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- McClement – Stalberg – McGinn8:59
xG 0.04–0.29 (12%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Skinner – Rask – Ryan11:02
xG 0.84–1.23 (40%)attempts 13–16goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk17:36
xG 0.83–0.57 (59%)attempts 20–18goals 2–0
- Slavin – Pesce17:19
xG 1.21–1.09 (53%)attempts 22–13goals 3–3
- Tennyson – Hanifin10:41
xG 0.11–1.22 (8%)attempts 6–16goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).