Tue, Dec 13, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
San Jose Sharks 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 014 | 012 | 213 | 03 | 1 | 342 |
| TOR | 113 | 17 | 09 | 02 | 0 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58TORZach HymanAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 7:46TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 12:43SJSJustin BraunAssists: Chris Tierney, Melker Karlsson · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 14:50SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Brent Burns, Patrick Marleau · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
- 2. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 3. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 4. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 5. TOR Nikita Soshnikov stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:21TORMatt Martin: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:12TORRoman Polak: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:23SJSKevin Labanc: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:30TORJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
- P1 15:30SJSMelker Karlsson: Embellishment2 min
- P2 3:31TORNazem Kadri: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:17SJSTommy Wingels: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:40SJSMatt Nieto: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:37TORBen Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 3:02TORConnor Carrick: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:46TORMatt Hunwick: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Tierney – Karlsson3:36
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Couture – Boedker – Labanc4:31
xG 0.28–0.16 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ward – Wingels – Donskoi3:37
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Boedker – Tierney – Labanc5:36
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Dillon9:38
xG 0.48–0.37 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Dillon – DeMelo4:40
xG 0.25–0.24 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Schlemko – DeMelo6:19
xG 0.18–0.18 (49%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Brown9:16
xG 0.54–0.14 (80%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Martin – Smith – Soshnikov5:54
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:59
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews10:23
xG 0.37–0.46 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Zaitsev13:41
xG 1.25–0.68 (65%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Carrick16:53
xG 0.68–0.52 (57%)attempts 12–19goals 1–0
- Polak – Hunwick11:43
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).