Tue, Dec 13, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 2, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 011 | 114 | 111 | 236 |
| DAL | 06 | 110 | 511 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:22DALStephen JohnsAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 15:36ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Rickard Rakell · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 1:08ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 5:41DALDan HamhuisPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 6:33DALAdam CracknellGWGAssists: Johnny Oduya · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 10:51DALPatrick EavesAssists: Jiri Hudler · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 12:24DALJamie BennAssists: Jordie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 13:57DALRadek FaksaENAssists: Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:23DALAdam Cracknell: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:14DALEsa Lindell: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:05ANARyan Kesler: Holding2 min
- P2 3:18ANAOndrej Kase: Interference2 min
- P2 10:23ANAAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:03DALJohn Klingberg: Holding2 min
- P2 19:48DALJamie Benn: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
- P3 3:47ANAStefan Noesen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:11DALJordie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:17ANASami Vatanen: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:17DALCody Eakin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCramarossa – Shaw – Noesen4:57
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Vermette – Ritchie – Kase8:52
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:21
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell8:50
xG 0.36–0.95 (27%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Theodore9:19
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler2:45
xG 0.03–0.08 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Vatanen – Fowler12:04
xG 0.50–0.62 (45%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Ritchie – Faksa9:29
xG 0.88–0.33 (73%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin9:49
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Hudler – Cracknell – Shore6:06
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Eaves – Korpikoski – Eakin9:08
xG 0.12–0.32 (27%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Benn14:05
xG 0.89–0.57 (61%)attempts 20–16goals 2–1
- Hamhuis – Johns11:13
xG 0.43–0.16 (72%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell12:15
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).