Tue, Dec 13, 2016·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 05 | 112 | 214 | 331 |
| EDM | 111 | 015 | 08 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:06EDMTyler PitlickAssists: Mark Letestu, Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 7:59CBJSam GagnerPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 7:10CBJCam AtkinsonPPGWGAssists: Sam Gagner, Alexander Wennberg · Slap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 8:46CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Josh Anderson · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:10EDMPatrick Maroon: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:38CBJSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:49CBJJack Johnson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 7:23EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:31EDMBrandon Davidson: Holding2 min
- P3 5:46EDMTyler Pitlick: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:42CBJRyan Murray: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:58EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner9:01
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg12:12
xG 0.39–0.19 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson6:17
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Gagner – Calvert – Sedlak2:35
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski11:50
xG 0.82–0.22 (79%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Murray – Nutivaara10:19
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard15:26
xG 0.29–0.18 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Pitlick – McDavid4:35
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Caggiula2:48
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Lucic – Eberle – McDavid2:50
xG 0.06–0.06 (49%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Draisaitl – Caggiula2:02
xG 0.03–0.11 (22%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Larsson3:07
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Larsson – Klefbom10:46
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Sekera – Russell12:33
xG 0.32–0.64 (33%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).