Wed, Dec 14, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
San Jose Sharks 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 16 | 110 | 03 | 1 | 429 |
| OTT | 111 | 113 | 16 | 01 | 0 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:57SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 7:01OTTBobby RyanAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 11:30SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 17:27OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 16:14OTTDion PhaneufPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 17:32SJSChris TierneyAssists: Brent Burns, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 2. SJS Mikkel Boedker stopped
- 3. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 4. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 5. OTT Erik Karlsson stopped
- 6. SJS Brent Burns stopped
- 7. OTT Chris Neil stopped
- 8. SJS Kevin Labanc scored
Penalties (19)
- P1 0:53SJSPaul Martin: Interference2 min
- P1 3:55OTTTom Pyatt: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 8:09SJSJoel Ward: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:04OTTCody Ceci: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:34OTTChris Neil: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:58SJSBrent Burns: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:08SJSJoel Ward: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:19OTTDion Phaneuf: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:40OTTKyle Turris: Instigator2 min
- P2 19:40SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:40OTTKyle Turris: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:40OTTKyle Turris: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:26SJSPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:50OTTMike Hoffman: Cross checking5 min
- P3 7:50OTTMike Hoffman: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 15:16SJSJoe Thornton: High sticking2 min · PPG
- OT 4:03OTTBen Harpur: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 5:00SJSJoe Thornton: Slashing2 min
- OT 5:00SJSJoe Thornton: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski9:09
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Couture – Boedker – Labanc6:11
xG 0.25–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Haley – Wingels – Nieto6:22
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Ward – Tierney – Karlsson5:50
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns6:53
xG 0.41–0.06 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun9:59
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Martin – Dillon2:09
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Hoffman – Stone7:46
xG 0.27–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel4:24
xG 0.11–0.14 (45%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Pageau6:20
xG 0.04–0.19 (17%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kelly – Pyatt – Pageau2:12
xG 0.03–0.27 (9%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Harpur7:36
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci9:38
xG 0.28–0.31 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Methot – Ceci2:48
xG 0.02–0.07 (22%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).