Wed, Dec 14, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 012 | 29 | 24 | 425 |
| COL | 05 | 210 | 114 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:01PHIMichael Del ZottoAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P2 12:14COLRene BourqueAssists: Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 16:34COLMatt DucheneAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
- P2 16:57PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Radko Gudas, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 3:30PHIRoman LyubimovUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 5:16PHIBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Taylor Leier · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 15:15COLMatt DucheneAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Mikhail Grigorenko · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:34COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P1 19:42COLBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:04PHIDale Weise: Holding2 min
- P2 12:54COLJohn Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:20PHIBrayden Schenn: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:36COLGabriel Landeskog: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:36PHIJakub Voracek: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:36PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Konecny10:16
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov8:57
xG 0.19–0.11 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Weise – Cousins – Leier8:54
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl12:47
xG 0.22–0.97 (18%)attempts 12–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gudas16:10
xG 0.74–0.34 (69%)attempts 13–12goals 3–1
- MacDonald – Provorov16:23
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
- Manning – Gostisbehere12:37
xG 0.30–0.63 (32%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Mitchell – Comeau10:21
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Bourque – Landeskog – MacKinnon11:01
xG 0.43–0.36 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Soderberg – McLeod – Martinsen4:57
xG 0.07–0.08 (49%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Grigorenko – Rantanen11:34
xG 0.14–0.69 (17%)attempts 6–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Zadorov4:45
xG 0.18–0.04 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Tyutin2:59
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Zadorov2:28
xG 0.07–0.04 (62%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).