Thu, Dec 15, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Anaheim Ducks 4, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 210 | 213 | 05 | 428 |
| BOS | 211 | 112 | 011 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:07BOSZdeno CharaAssists: David Backes, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 12:20BOSAustin CzarnikAssists: Ryan Spooner, Riley Nash · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 12:44ANAAndrew CoglianoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 17:50ANAKevin BieksaAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 0:55ANAJosh MansonAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Rickard Rakell · Backhand, 0.23 xG3–2
- P2 2:06BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: David Backes, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–3
- P2 5:02ANARickard RakellGWGAssists: Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:22BOSDavid Pastrnak: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 5:01BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:49ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:43ANAKevin Bieksa: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:30ANAOndrej Kase: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:09ANAOndrej Kase: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:06BOSDavid Backes: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Shaw – Ritchie2:36
xG 0.10–0.02 (86%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Vermette – Ritchie – Kase5:33
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:37
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell10:41
xG 0.49–0.55 (47%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm15:05
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Vatanen – Fowler14:37
xG 0.77–0.63 (55%)attempts 14–28goals 1–1
- Bieksa – Theodore10:48
xG 0.12–0.71 (15%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Backes – Marchand9:29
xG 0.25–0.06 (79%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak4:27
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Moore – Blidh – Acciari7:16
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Nash – Spooner – Czarnik7:41
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Grzelcyk5:50
xG 0.45–0.07 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug14:16
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Chara – Miller2:32
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).