Thu, Dec 15, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Los Angeles Kings 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 111 | 111 | 29 | 431 |
| DET | 12 | 06 | 010 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21LAKDerek ForbortAssists: Dwight King, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 7:13DETMike GreenAssists: Luke Glendening · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 19:43LAKNic DowdGWGAssists: Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–1
- P3 13:50LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–1
- P3 16:26LAKTyler ToffoliENAssists: Dustin Brown, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:57DETThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:04DETAndreas Athanasiou: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:00LAKTrevor Lewis: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:21LAKTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:43LAKDerek Forbort: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:57DETJonathan Ericsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:15LAKMatt Greene: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:47LAKDerek Forbort: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:47DETThomas Vanek: Embellishment2 min
- P3 19:41LAKJordan Nolan: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:41DETDanny DeKeyser: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Brown – Dowd6:57
xG 0.79–0.26 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli6:51
xG 0.38–0.05 (89%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Kopitar – Lewis – Pearson8:04
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson2:25
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Martinez13:24
xG 0.62–0.23 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort15:57
xG 0.50–0.17 (74%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Muzzin10:56
xG 0.31–0.65 (32%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Vanek – Nyquist6:31
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Mantha – Larkin2:39
xG 0.03–0.05 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ott – Miller – Glendening7:19
xG 0.03–0.10 (24%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Vanek – Nyquist – Glendening2:15
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Sproul6:53
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Sproul – DeKeyser3:15
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser13:32
xG 0.67–0.64 (51%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).