Thu, Dec 15, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
New Jersey Devils 2, St. Louis Blues 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 211 | 05 | 010 | 226 |
| STL | 115 | 211 | 25 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:49NJDAdam HenriqueSHAssists: Travis Zajac · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 11:36NJDMiles WoodAssists: Adam Henrique, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.25 xG2–0
- P1 17:06STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Brad Hunt · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 2:05STLJori LehteraAssists: Robby Fabbri, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 7:45STLAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 9:00STLNail YakupovAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 18:39STLPatrik BerglundENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:13NJDJohn Moore: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:33NJDVernon Fiddler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:44NJDAdam Henrique: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:44STLDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:23STLScottie Upshall: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:17NJDDamon Severson: Holding2 min
- P2 19:03STLKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:16NJDJon Merrill: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Palmieri – Wood7:42
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Zajac – Smith-Pelly – Hall9:09
xG 0.47–0.10 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Zajac – Hall3:24
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Gazdic – Kalinin3:28
xG 0.04–0.23 (16%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Moore12:15
xG 0.66–0.32 (68%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Merrill10:05
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Greene – Severson12:04
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Schwartz – Yakupov10:41
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves6:46
xG 0.17–0.03 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Steen – Berglund – Perron10:44
xG 0.12–0.14 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri7:53
xG 0.40–0.67 (37%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – Hunt9:14
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Bouwmeester – Parayko14:46
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson13:00
xG 0.36–0.57 (38%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).