Thu, Dec 15, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 5, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 310 | 04 | 25 | 519 |
| NSH | 113 | 113 | 010 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:20MINJonas BrodinPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 12:04NSHRyan EllisAssists: Colin Wilson, Viktor Arvidsson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 18:37MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P1 19:06MINEric StaalGWGAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 8:55NSHMike FisherPPAssists: James Neal, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 19:04MINEric StaalENAssists: Charlie Coyle · Backhand, 0.73 xG4–2
- P3 19:39MINMikael GranlundENAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.73 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:55NSHCraig Smith: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:42MINEric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:30NSHPekka Rinne: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:25MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:00MINChris Stewart: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Coyle – Niederreiter12:39
xG 0.60–0.23 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund13:27
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 8–24goals 0–1
- Pominville – Staal – Parise11:03
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Stewart – Graovac – Gabriel6:31
xG 0.07–0.20 (26%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon19:40
xG 1.02–0.34 (75%)attempts 11–21goals 2–1
- Brodin – Dumba12:36
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Scandella – Folin12:35
xG 0.08–0.55 (13%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Sissons6:54
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Fiala13:43
xG 0.41–0.44 (49%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Neal – Johansen – Forsberg14:51
xG 0.49–0.61 (45%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson10:25
xG 0.17–0.56 (24%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Irwin9:09
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm20:01
xG 0.55–0.60 (48%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis19:45
xG 0.47–0.87 (35%)attempts 26–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).