Thu, Dec 15, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Florida Panthers 3, Winnipeg Jets 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 019 | 317 | 06 | 02 | 1 | 344 |
| WPG | 18 | 111 | 110 | 03 | 2 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:49WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Patrik Laine, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 4:51FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Jaromir Jagr · Slap, 0.46 xG1–1
- P2 8:36FLAReilly SmithPPAssists: Seth Griffith, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 10:11WPGAdam LowryAssists: Paul Postma, Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–2
- P2 11:58FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–2
- P3 2:36WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. FLA Vincent Trocheck scored
- 2. WPG Mark Scheifele stopped
- 3. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 4. WPG Patrik Laine stopped
- 5. FLA Seth Griffith stopped
- 6. WPG Bryan Little scored
- 7. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
- 8. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 9. FLA Reilly Smith stopped
- 10. WPG Nikolaj Ehlers stopped
- 11. FLA Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 12. WPG Mathieu Perreault scored
Penalties (11)
- P2 0:31FLAJason Demers: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:20WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:37FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:45WPGToby Enstrom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:27WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:33FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:33WPGJacob Trouba: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:01FLAMike Matheson: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:01WPGNikolaj Ehlers: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:05FLAColton Sceviour: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:05WPGPatrik Laine: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Griffith – Barkov11:59
xG 1.15–0.14 (89%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Bjugstad – Malgin9:01
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Smith – Trocheck13:49
xG 1.08–0.96 (53%)attempts 22–15goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Thompson3:54
xG 0.08–0.81 (9%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Matheson11:36
xG 1.10–0.48 (69%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Yandle – Pysyk2:44
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Yandle – Demers4:47
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers9:23
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Stafford – Lowry – Dano3:20
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Little – Perreault3:49
xG 0.16–0.06 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Laine5:01
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPostma – Chiarot6:47
xG 0.96–0.36 (73%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey16:29
xG 0.55–0.65 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Trouba20:35
xG 0.83–1.86 (31%)attempts 13–33goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).