Fri, Dec 16, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Kings 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 0 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 06 | 09 | 011 | 12 | 128 |
| PIT | 010 | 020 | 09 | 00 | 039 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 1:00LAKTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Alec Martinez, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:08LAKTyler Toffoli: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:38LAKNic Dowd: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:22LAKMatt Greene: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:07LAKJordan Nolan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:20PITChris Kunitz: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – King – Toffoli9:47
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Shore7:06
xG 0.23–0.13 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson2:16
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Lewis – Pearson12:30
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty3:58
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort18:28
xG 0.71–0.68 (51%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Muzzin11:45
xG 0.28–0.47 (37%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Sheary13:45
xG 0.80–0.25 (76%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Cullen – Kuhnhackl – Wilson8:35
xG 0.36–0.04 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Bonino – Rust9:50
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin11:50
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Maatta2:04
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Daley – Maatta7:57
xG 0.47–0.19 (72%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Pouliot8:21
xG 0.32–0.08 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).