Fri, Dec 16, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Florida Panthers 3, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 19 | 27 | 323 |
| COL | 08 | 111 | 012 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:11COLFedor TyutinAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 16:10FLAJason DemersAssists: Seth Griffith, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–1
- P3 6:37FLAReilly SmithSHGWGAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Jason Demers · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 10:49FLAMike MathesonAssists: Colton Sceviour, Mark Pysyk · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:14FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:47FLAShawn Thornton: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:46COLTyson Barrie: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:09FLASeth Griffith: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:09COLGabriel Landeskog: Embellishment2 min
- P2 3:39FLAJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:55FLAJussi Jokinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:38COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:59FLAJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:44FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Griffith – Barkov10:55
xG 0.84–0.16 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Thompson3:53
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Bjugstad – Rau7:19
xG 0.04–0.25 (14%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Smith – Trocheck9:43
xG 0.09–0.38 (19%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad12:40
xG 0.65–0.38 (63%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Yandle – Demers2:15
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson12:14
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Grigorenko – Rantanen8:41
xG 0.25–0.04 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Comeau6:42
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Soderberg – McLeod – Martinsen3:01
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Bourque – Landeskog – MacKinnon7:53
xG 0.14–0.48 (23%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Zadorov3:01
xG 0.16–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Barrie9:23
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Gelinas7:27
xG 0.04–0.21 (17%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).