Fri, Dec 16, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Calgary Flames 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 213 | 212 | 04 | 429 |
| CGY | 18 | 05 | 010 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46CBJBoone JennerAssists: William Karlsson, David Savard · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 14:22CBJBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 16:45CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Kris Versteeg, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 1:14CBJSam GagnerPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Cam Atkinson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 7:31CBJMatt CalvertSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:53CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:53CBJAlexander Wennberg: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:22CGYJyrki Jokipakka: Interference2 min
- P1 15:04CBJDavid Savard: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:27CBJMatt Calvert: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:46CGYDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:20CBJLukas Sedlak: Holding2 min
- P3 3:13CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:51CGYDennis Wideman: Holding2 min
- P3 12:14CBJJosh Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner7:28
xG 0.26–0.06 (81%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson10:16
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg9:03
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak8:04
xG 0.10–0.01 (91%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard14:59
xG 0.97–0.29 (77%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski14:08
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Murray – Nutivaara13:49
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Gaudreau – Bennett7:21
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Ferland7:16
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk9:31
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Gaudreau – Monahan3:26
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Engelland – Jokipakka12:58
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie14:08
xG 0.16–0.38 (29%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton13:40
xG 0.36–0.63 (36%)attempts 21–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).