Fri, Dec 16, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 111 | 08 | 18 | 227 |
| VAN | 08 | 28 | 28 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:31TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Brian Boyle · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 1:37VANBrandon SutterAssists: Markus Granlund, Loui Eriksson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 13:25VANLuca SbisaAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Sven Baertschi · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 3:53TBLCory ConacherPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 7:46VANBo HorvatPPGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, Markus Granlund · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–3
- P3 19:13VANAlexandre BurrowsENAssists: Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:24TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:49VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:21VANJannik Hansen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:08TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Boyle – Drouin13:43
xG 0.97–0.26 (79%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Condra – Johnson – Conacher11:58
xG 0.17–0.11 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Namestnikov – Point11:19
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
- Brown – Paquette – Vermin7:05
xG 0.01–0.18 (5%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman16:07
xG 0.65–0.23 (74%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sustr2:49
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Koekkoek – Sustr2:18
xG 0.07–0.01 (87%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Baertschi – Horvat11:11
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Skille – Chaput – Megna4:51
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Sutter – Granlund13:00
xG 0.09–0.20 (32%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen13:12
xG 0.26–0.66 (28%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Stecher14:09
xG 0.58–0.50 (54%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Tanev – Hutton18:33
xG 0.20–0.31 (40%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Biega – Tryamkin13:27
xG 0.15–0.33 (31%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).