Sat, Dec 17, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 113 | 010 | 011 | 00 | 134 |
| TOR | 114 | 020 | 012 | 13 | 249 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:51PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 13:05TORNikita ZaitsevAssists: Mitch Marner, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.01 xG1–1
- OT 2:00TORJake GardinerGWGAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:44PITIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P1 11:40TORWilliam Nylander: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:55PITJustin Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:08PITDerrick Pouliot: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:03PITConor Sheary: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:18TORMatt Hunwick: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 7:11TORNikita Soshnikov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Sheary6:20
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Hornqvist – Bonino3:10
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Sheary7:18
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Wilson7:22
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksy – Maatta10:32
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Pouliot12:17
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Schultz – Maatta2:20
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews12:26
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Martin – Smith – Soshnikov3:28
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:08
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown10:14
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick15:22
xG 0.69–0.49 (58%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev14:20
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Polak – Hunwick10:45
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).