Sat, Dec 17, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 1, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 014 | 06 | 130 |
| OTT | 115 | 19 | 17 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59OTTBobby RyanAssists: Chris Kelly, Ryan Dzingel · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 10:50NJDJohn MooreAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 1:14OTTDerick BrassardGWGAssists: Zack Smith, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 19:46OTTZack SmithENAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:48OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:48NJDLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:00OTTMark Borowiecki: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:04NJDNick Lappin: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:04NJDNick Lappin: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:04OTTMarc Methot: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Zajac – Hall17:35
xG 0.55–0.16 (77%)attempts 21–8goals 1–1
- Henrique – Palmieri – Wood12:46
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Gazdic – Smith-Pelly4:04
xG 0.05–0.09 (35%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Josefson – Kalinin – Lappin8:08
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Lovejoy12:26
xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Merrill – Severson9:41
xG 0.35–0.20 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Moore – Severson4:18
xG 0.07–0.02 (81%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Kelly – Bailey5:55
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Brassard – Smith – Stone11:31
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Pageau – Lazar8:37
xG 0.15–0.49 (23%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel12:10
xG 0.26–0.78 (25%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Methot – Karlsson20:21
xG 0.55–0.52 (52%)attempts 24–18goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman9:01
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:34
xG 0.04–0.25 (12%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).