Sat, Dec 17, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Montréal Canadiens 2, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 114 | 05 | 225 |
| WSH | 08 | 18 | 05 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:41MTLArtturi LehkonenUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 14:16WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Justin Williams, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 16:39MTLJeff PetryGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Phillip Danault · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:00MTLMichael McCarron: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:23MTLTorrey Mitchell: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:05WSHJustin Williams: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:35MTLNathan Beaulieu: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:07MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min
- P2 14:16MTLNathan Beaulieu: Abuse of officials10 min
- P2 15:48WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:48MTLPaul Byron: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:16WSHDmitry Orlov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Pacioretty – Danault11:51
xG 1.06–0.25 (81%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Byron – Gallagher11:53
xG 0.69–0.41 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Terry – McCarron – Carr7:51
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Flynn – Lehkonen9:43
xG 0.26–0.65 (28%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Emelin13:59
xG 0.87–0.26 (77%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Markov – Petry10:13
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Petry – Barberio2:05
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Ovechkin – Kuznetsov8:31
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Sanford – Vrana5:48
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov2:48
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Johansson – Vrana3:47
xG 0.06–0.08 (41%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov14:09
xG 0.78–0.55 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Orpik – Schmidt12:57
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson12:33
xG 0.35–1.10 (24%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).