Sat, Dec 17, 2016·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 05 | 113 | 114 | 01 | 1 | 233 |
| EDM | 011 | 113 | 17 | 01 | 2 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:58EDMMilan LucicPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Andrej Sekera · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 18:59TBLJonathan DrouinPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 2:35TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Cory Conacher, Nikita Nesterov · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 7:03EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Mark Letestu, Andrej Sekera · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. EDM Mark Letestu scored
- 2. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 3. EDM Leon Draisaitl stopped
- 4. TBL Jonathan Drouin scored
- 5. EDM Connor McDavid scored
- 6. TBL Brian Boyle stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:04TBLCory Conacher: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:31TBLJT Brown: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:05EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:30EDMLeon Draisaitl: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:45TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:16TBLAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:04EDMMatt Hendricks: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:31EDMTaylor Beck: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:56TBLSlater Koekkoek: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 4:50TBLBrayden Point: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Namestnikov – Point11:44
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Condra – Johnson – Conacher5:08
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Johnson – Brown – Vermin2:58
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Drouin11:59
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Nesterov3:02
xG 0.28–0.05 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Garrison – Nesterov2:47
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman10:29
xG 0.30–0.15 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Letestu – Kassian7:52
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Maroon – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl4:34
xG 0.08–0.09 (46%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Beck – Pitlick – Nugent-Hopkins4:34
xG 0.06–0.20 (22%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Lucic – Eberle – McDavid14:24
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Davidson – Benning10:13
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom15:41
xG 0.27–0.43 (38%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Sekera – Russell13:57
xG 0.18–0.64 (22%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).