Sun, Dec 18, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 09 | 113 | 128 |
| WPG | 011 | 110 | 39 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:06WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Mark Scheifele, Paul Postma · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 2:54WPGBlake WheelerGWGAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Bryan Little · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 4:03WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 17:59COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 19:30WPGNikolaj EhlersENAssists: Patrik Laine, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:48COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:48WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:21WPGMarko Dano: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:23COLEric Gelinas: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:33WPGDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min
- P3 16:48WPGChris Thorburn: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:17
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Bourque – Duchene – Grigorenko12:01
xG 0.28–0.43 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Soderberg – McLeod – Martinsen7:40
xG 0.04–0.26 (15%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Iginla – Mitchell – Comeau10:05
xG 0.05–0.34 (13%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Zadorov2:40
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Gelinas2:59
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Zadorov2:03
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Little – Perreault13:07
xG 0.62–0.12 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Stafford – Lowry – Dano10:03
xG 0.39–0.05 (89%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Laine12:53
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Thorburn – Copp – Tanev4:57
xG 0.01–0.01 (51%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Trouba16:17
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey18:00
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Postma – Chiarot12:06
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).