Sun, Dec 18, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Ottawa Senators 6, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 213 | 113 | 38 | 634 |
| NYI | 09 | 211 | 011 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:30OTTBobby RyanAssists: Kyle Turris, Ryan Dzingel · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 17:20OTTZack SmithAssists: Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 0:27NYIAnders LeeAssists: Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 14:07NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 15:03OTTMark StonePPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–2
- P3 5:45OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Mark Stone, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 16:33OTTZack SmithENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG5–2
- P3 19:34OTTTom PyattENAssists: Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.65 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:19OTTDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P2 2:12NYICal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min
- P2 14:43NYIThomas Hickey: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:11OTTRyan Dzingel: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:50OTTCurtis Lazar: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:24OTTTom Pyatt: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Quine won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Smith – Stone9:41
xG 0.94–0.41 (70%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
- Ryan – Brassard – Stone2:07
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Pageau – Lazar9:58
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Neil – Kelly – Bailey8:01
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson10:38
xG 0.73–0.28 (73%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Methot – Ceci6:23
xG 0.43–0.07 (87%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman11:56
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee14:16
xG 0.51–0.48 (52%)attempts 22–11goals 1–1
- Nelson – Prince – Beauvillier9:25
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ladd – Quine9:41
xG 0.33–0.46 (42%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Strome9:29
xG 0.23–0.72 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Hickey14:06
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Leddy15:50
xG 0.72–0.91 (44%)attempts 18–16goals 2–1
- Seidenberg – de Haan15:52
xG 0.41–1.00 (29%)attempts 16–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).