Mon, Dec 19, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Nashville Predators 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 09 | 110 | 04 | 1 | 231 |
| PHI | 116 | 010 | 05 | 01 | 0 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:32PHIAndrew MacDonaldAssists: Jakub Voracek, Ivan Provorov · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 11:46NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Matt Irwin, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PHI Nick Cousins stopped
- 2. NSH Ryan Ellis scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. NSH Ryan Johansen stopped
- 5. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
Penalties (4)
- P2 2:59NSHAdam Pardy: Interference2 min
- P2 3:35NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:51PHIClaude Giroux: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:25NSHRyan Johansen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Wilson – Arvidsson6:14
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Smith2:32
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Sissons2:15
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Watson – Johansen – Forsberg2:24
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis23:16
xG 0.65–0.46 (59%)attempts 26–20goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Irwin19:15
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Pardy – Weber7:24
xG 0.08–0.27 (23%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Konecny11:40
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Gordon – Cousins – Leier4:43
xG 0.15–0.04 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov11:28
xG 0.27–0.18 (59%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl14:21
xG 0.17–0.48 (26%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gostisbehere11:22
xG 0.54–0.05 (92%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas16:54
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 17–26goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Provorov18:23
xG 0.20–0.64 (24%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).