Mon, Dec 19, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 015 | 111 | 12 | 335 |
| STL | 28 | 06 | 011 | 02 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:20STLKyle BrodziakAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 11:44EDMTyler PitlickAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 12:17STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Robby Fabbri, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 5:47EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Brandon Davidson, Leon Draisaitl · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 2:55EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:20STLDavid Perron: Interference2 min
- P2 7:34STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:34EDMPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:56EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Eberle – McDavid13:50
xG 0.74–0.33 (69%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Maroon – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl5:35
xG 0.26–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Maroon – Pitlick – Draisaitl7:52
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian10:13
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Russell18:20
xG 0.89–0.67 (57%)attempts 17–15goals 0–2
- Gryba – Davidson15:18
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Larsson – Klefbom16:28
xG 0.39–0.70 (36%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Berglund – Perron13:48
xG 0.61–0.34 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves8:35
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri11:03
xG 0.43–0.26 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Stastny – Schwartz – Yakupov10:04
xG 0.07–0.18 (27%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko16:50
xG 0.80–0.23 (78%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson11:28
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson19:19
xG 0.31–1.10 (22%)attempts 13–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).