Tue, Dec 20, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 4, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 29 | 111 | 19 | 429 |
| BOS | 014 | 013 | 223 | 250 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05NYIAnders LeeUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 5:40NYIThomas HickeyAssists: Josh Bailey, Anders Lee · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 6:18NYINikolay KuleminGWGAssists: Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 3:04BOSAnton BlidhAssists: Brandon Carlo, Anton Khudobin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 7:12BOSDominic MooreAssists: Zdeno Chara, Jimmy Hayes · Tip-in, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 13:02NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy · Backhand, 0.34 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:35NYIJohnny Boychuk: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:49BOSColin Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:40NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Interference2 min
- P2 19:28NYIAndrew Ladd: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:29BOSKevan Miller: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:45BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:45NYIBrock Nelson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:15BOSDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:15BOSDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:15NYIBrock Nelson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Kulemin – Strome5:58
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Nelson – Prince – Beauvillier8:33
xG 0.50–0.61 (45%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee12:31
xG 0.44–0.70 (39%)attempts 7–18goals 2–0
- Chimera – Ladd – Quine10:11
xG 0.23–0.60 (28%)attempts 8–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hickey – de Haan14:33
xG 0.60–0.60 (50%)attempts 10–24goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Boychuk13:53
xG 0.61–0.91 (40%)attempts 8–21goals 2–0
- Hamonic – Leddy14:32
xG 0.12–0.76 (13%)attempts 7–21goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Hayes – Blidh8:19
xG 0.69–0.17 (80%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0
- Nash – Schaller – Acciari3:04
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Czarnik4:21
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Backes – Krejci – Spooner9:22
xG 0.42–0.17 (72%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug8:22
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo17:19
xG 1.12–0.83 (58%)attempts 21–14goals 2–1
- Miller – Miller4:17
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).