Tue, Dec 20, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 110 | 014 | 14 | 228 |
| PIT | 122 | 28 | 417 | 747 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:55PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Ian Cole, Justin Schultz · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 16:59NYRMatt PuempelAssists: Marek Hrivik, Nick Holden · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 4:43PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Chris Kunitz, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 8:53PITPhil KesselPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 1:52NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: Derek Stepan, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 4:11PITJustin SchultzAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 6:12PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 12:22PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Nick Bonino, Chris Kunitz · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–6
- P3 19:49PITNick BoninoAssists: Bryan Rust, Ian Cole · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:19NYRKevin Klein: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 2:02PITDerrick Pouliot: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:32NYRKevin Hayes: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:01NYRChris Kreider: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:14PITSidney Crosby: Kneeing2 min
- P2 17:44PITIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:42NYRBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Stepan
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Grabner – Stepan – Zuccarello2:12
xG 0.10–0.21 (33%)attempts 1–4goals 1–1
- Pirri – Hrivik – Puempel3:55
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Pirri – Lindberg – Hrivik4:11
xG 0.01–0.18 (5%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello8:35
xG 0.16–0.33 (32%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Girardi – McDonagh12:12
xG 0.33–0.74 (31%)attempts 8–16goals 1–3
- Staal – Holden13:24
xG 0.21–0.89 (19%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Klein – Skjei13:46
xG 0.72–1.54 (32%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Sheary10:47
xG 1.45–0.18 (89%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Hornqvist10:24
xG 1.40–0.44 (76%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Wilson8:33
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin9:03
xG 0.41–0.55 (43%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz12:01
xG 0.97–0.25 (79%)attempts 13–13goals 3–1
- Dumoulin – Maatta10:31
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Pouliot4:04
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).