Tue, Dec 20, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 3, Florida Panthers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 04 | 217 | 113 | 02 | 0 | 336 |
| FLA | 116 | 111 | 110 | 02 | 2 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:09FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Jason Demers · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 12:14FLAKeith YandlePPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jaromir Jagr · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 15:45BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 16:55BUFEvander KaneAssists: Brian Gionta, Cody Franson · Tip-in, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 12:19BUFRasmus RistolainenAssists: Sam Reinhart · Tip-in, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 16:09FLANick BjugstadAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 2. FLA Vincent Trocheck scored
- 3. BUF Kyle Okposo stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:23FLAAaron Ekblad: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:08BUFJohan Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:24FLAJakub Kindl: Interference2 min
- P2 7:12BUFEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:57BUFZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:25FLAJason Demers: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:27FLAPaul Thompson: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:27BUFWilliam Carrier: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:27BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:27FLAShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:40BUFSam Reinhart: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Foligno – Reinhart8:13
xG 0.56–0.31 (65%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Gionta – Kane – Larsson11:42
xG 0.95–0.77 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Moulson – Okposo – Eichel7:51
xG 0.51–0.40 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Grant – Girgensons – Carrier2:55
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Franson7:16
xG 0.66–0.10 (87%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen16:14
xG 1.29–1.09 (54%)attempts 23–14goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Kulikov16:57
xG 0.36–1.05 (26%)attempts 8–23goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Smith – Trocheck13:44
xG 1.11–0.18 (86%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Bjugstad – Malgin7:18
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Jagr – Griffith – Barkov9:42
xG 0.76–0.76 (50%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Thompson2:22
xG 0.06–0.06 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson14:05
xG 0.77–0.55 (58%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Demers – Matheson2:44
xG 0.16–0.03 (82%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kindl – Demers11:06
xG 0.79–0.72 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).