Tue, Dec 20, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Ottawa Senators 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 115 | 311 | 04 | 430 |
| CHI | 19 | 16 | 111 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:30OTTBobby RyanAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 11:17CHIArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 7:31OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Chris Wideman, Bobby Ryan · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 7:41OTTTom PyattAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–1
- P2 12:00CHITyler MotteAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 14:22OTTDion PhaneufPPGWGAssists: Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 1:42CHIRichard PanikAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:14OTTMarc Methot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:41CHIAndrew Desjardins: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:30CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:06CHIBrent Seabrook: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:05OTTDion Phaneuf: Holding2 min
- P3 7:48CHIRichard Panik: Interference2 min
- P3 11:19OTTCody Ceci: Holding2 min
- P3 14:42CHIRyan Hartman: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:08OTTDion Phaneuf: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Smith – Pageau2:15
xG 0.48–0.02 (96%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau7:11
xG 0.41–0.05 (89%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel10:14
xG 0.43–0.32 (58%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Neil – Kelly – Lazar6:31
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson14:34
xG 1.14–0.42 (73%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson2:38
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci4:12
xG 0.02–0.01 (60%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Desjardins – Motte4:38
xG 0.22–0.04 (84%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hossa – Hinostroza – Hartman2:29
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Panik – Kruger – Rasmussen7:12
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Hinostroza – Motte – Hartman3:29
xG 0.01–0.02 (35%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- van Riemsdyk – Forsling13:27
xG 0.28–0.43 (40%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson12:34
xG 0.26–0.41 (38%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Campbell – Seabrook11:07
xG 0.34–0.97 (26%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).